“The Red Tide vs The Blue Wave”—Sunday Political Brunch August 12, 2018
Sunday, August 12, 2018
Mark Curtis, GoLocalPDX Contributor
“Red Tide v. Blue Wave” – There is no big trend here. Both sides claim the advantage, but here are the honest-to-goodness numbers. There have been ten special Congressional elections since the 2016 ballot. Republicans have won 7 and Democrats 2, with Ohio’s 12th Congressional District “to close to call.” Folks, individual special elections never signal a trend. The real trend will be a collective national vote on November 6th. Midterm elections are always a referendum on the party-in-power, especially in the White House.
“Drilling Deep in Ohio” – All the big national focus this week was on Ohio’s 12th Congressional District which has been solidly Republican for over three decades. Republican Troy Balderson is leading Democrat Danny O’Connor by just over 1,500 votes. If Republicans prevail, it’s because they are marginally in control of a district around Columbus they used to dominate. If Democrats win, it’s a huge upset and a slap at President Trump.
“But Wait, There’s More” – The special election was August 7th. But, guess what? No matter who wins, the same two men will face off in November for reelection. Literally we may have a Congressman for two months, before a do-over election for the full-term. My point is, what happens this week may not be the same result in November. The August special election was the only thing on the ballot. In November we will also have a hotly-contested race for Governor of Ohio, as well as a competitive U.S. Senate race. Coattails could flip in November, what voters previously chose in August!
“Oh Wait, There’s Even More!” – Ohio remains the most important political state in the nation. It is the national kingmaker. If you want to be president, win Ohio and you will live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue! I say this because I firmly believe that termed-out Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio, is planning on challenging President Trump for renomination in 2020. Kasich has been among the most vocal Republican critics of Trump. Just remember, four of the most recent Presidents who faced an intra-party challenge for renomination – lost the election or declined to run again. They are Presidents Johnson, Ford, Carter and George H.W. Bush.
“The Trump Factor” – Obviously President Trump likes to claim victory every time a GOP candidate wins, but what really is his track record? A lot of Republicans – including Governor Kasich - were hoping Trump would stay out of Ohio. Yet, he showed up last week to endorse Troy Balderson who was trailing in the polls. If the Republican candidate squeaks by, Trump will claim credit. This also appears to be true in Kansas where Trump-endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach, holds a narrow lead of fewer than 100 voters over incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer, (R) Kansas. But again, this can cut both ways, especially in states where Trump is not popular.
“The Intra-Party Battles” – One of the big things to watch as we head to November, is the fight for control of each party. The two-big wins so far for Democrats were Sen. Doug Jones, (R) Alabama, and Rep. Conor Lamb, (D) Pennsylvania, who narrowly won by less than a thousand votes. Both Democrats are centrists (read moderate to conservative). In other races, the more progressive candidates (read liberal), have not fared well. On the GOP side, the Trump endorsements has been a boost (except for Alabama), but more moderate Republican candidates have turned a cold shoulder to Trump. These are trends to watch as Campaign 2018 hits full-speed Labor Day weekend.
“Here’s What to Watch” – As we see in every election, “It’s the economy, stupid,” as famed Clinton presidential advisor James Carville likes to say. We are at full-employment at 3.9 percent. Financial markets are cooking. Yes, I know the so-called “trickle down” effect and “living wage” haven’t touched many blue-collar and low-income workers, but demand for workers is high and that could drive up wages. If people are feeling better economically, that favors the Republicans. And if there are no terrorist attacks (saying prayers), that also favors the party in power, regardless of your politics. But, lots can happen between now and November.
“Happy Birthday!” – To my dear sister Tierney Curtis, I say, “Happy Birthday!” We won’t mention any numbers or milestones (she’s younger), but Tierney has been one of the biggest supporters of my political coverage over the years, including the publication of my book, “Age of Obama: A Reporters Journey with Clinton, McCain, and Obama in the Making of the President 2008.” God bless you my fellow “Cheesehead” and, “Go Packers!” We’ve enjoyed Packer games in person from San Francisco to Lambeau, alike! And a lot of political chatter, too!
What are your thoughts so far on Campaign 2018? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia and the five surroundings states and the District of Columbia.