MLS Western Conference Playoff Preview and Predictions
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Justin Surber of GoLocalPDX Partner Site Oregon Sports News
The Portland Timbers capped off a wonderful ending to their regular season on Sunday by beating the Colorado Rapids 4-1, which secured Portland third place in the Western Conference and a home playoff date with Sporting Kansas City.
Even with Portland’s star Diego Valeri suspended for the game (yellow card accumulation), the Timbers’ offense continued their sudden hot streak thanks to an amazing performance put in by Darlington Nagbe, who scored two goals and assisted on a third. Nagbe was seemingly everywhere on the field and was far and away the man of the match. His dribbling and attacking runs consistently broke down the Colorado defense, and the finishes on two goals were absolutely world-class.
Even Coach Caleb Porter, a man not prone to hyperbole, admitted that it might have been the finest performance of Nagbe’s young career.
And what was Portland’s reward for finishing the season third in the West with 53 points? Hosting a Sporting Kansas City team that has had Portland’s number this season in a do-or-die game on a short week Thursday evening.
In fact, the entire Western Conference playoffs are filled with incredible teams and potential matchups. Let’s take a look at the teams and matchups, and make some predictions:
Los Angeles Galaxy at Seattle Sounders:
The Seattle Sounders waited until the final day to clinch their playoff spot, but removed all doubt early on against Real Salt Lake by scoring twice in the first 20 minutes en route to a 3-1 victory.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Galaxy completed their stumble into the playoffs, losing 2-1 at Sporting Kansas City to follow up the 5-2 drubbing suffered last week at the hands of the Portland Timbers.
These two teams played in Seattle three weeks ago, with Seattle scoring in extra time to earn a 1-1 draw.
This is a game that will almost certainly include multiple goals, as both teams combine dangerous offenses with suspect defenses. If the game were in Los Angeles I’d lean towards the Galaxy, but the Seattle crowd will be out for blood and the Galaxy veterans don’t like playing on the artificial turf. It will take extra time, but I think Seattle advances, 3-2.
Sporting Kansas City at Portland Timbers:
The Timbers come in on a roll, having won each of their last three games by a combined score of 10-3. Both Nagbe and Fanendo Adi are at or near the best form they’ve shown while wearing Timbers green, and Diego Chara has been dominant in the defensive midfield.
Sporting Kansas City defeated the Galaxy on Sunday to secure their playoff position on Sunday after a mini-slide that saw them win only one out of their previous five games. Of course, the one win came at Providence Park against the Timbers.
Portland’s defense has been solid all season long and will probably defend reasonably well, but a shutout might be a bit much to ask against Dom Dwyer, Graham Zusi, and Benny Feilhaber. Asking Portland to score multiple goals 10 days ago would probably spell the end of the Timbers’ season. But Portland has started finding the back of the net at the exact right time, so Portland advances 3-1.
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| The Seattle Sounders |
Should Seattle and Portland both advance, the Sounders would earn a semifinal date with the Western Conference top seed FC Dallas. This would be an excellent matchup, as it would feature a Dallas defense that was among the stingiest in all of MLS going against the likes of Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins in a home-and-home matchup.
Dallas has flown below the radar all season long despite boasting the second-best record in the league. With that said, I think the Sounders are a bad matchup for Dallas, who can sic Ozzie Alonso on Mauro Diaz and force Dallas to find alternate routes to get Fabian Castillo and Blas Perez service. If Dallas is able to do so, they can advance; if they struggle like I believe they will, Seattle advances 4-2.
Portland Timbers v. Vancouver Whitecaps:
A Portland victory over Sporting Kansas City would earn the Timbers a home-and-home date with Cascadia rivals Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver has struggled down the stretch, going winless in their previous five MLS games prior to beating Houston 3-0 on Sunday to earn the second seed.
The Timbers would have to feel good about how they matchup with Vancouver, despite failing to earn a win in any of the three meetings between the two teams this season. Portland outplayed Vancouver in two of the three, but simply couldn’t find the back of the net.
In addition, Vancouver comes into the playoffs ravaged by injuries. Team captain and designated player Pedro Morales is dealing with a hamstring injury that likely will keep him out for at least the first round Vancouver plays. In addition, starting center back Pa-Modou Kah is dealing with a groin problem that kept him out against Houston.
Vancouver is still a solid team and difficult matchup even without Morales and Kah, but an in-form Portland should be favored to advance here. Portland advances 5-2.
Seattle Sounders v. Portland Timbers:
Doesn’t it just seem like fate that these two meet for the Western Conference title at some point? The best rivalry in MLS is renewed on the biggest possible stage with a birth in the MLS Cup up for grabs. And I’m sure MLS headquarters wouldn’t be too disappointed to see their signature rivalry on display with a conference title on the line.
Seattle took two of the three meetings during the regular season, but the Timbers can take solace knowing they badly outplayed Seattle on the road in their most recent meeting in August and deserved the win. The Timbers have defended the Martins-Dempsey combination as well as anyone, and would have to do so again to have a chance against the Sounders.
This series is one where the loss of center back Roman Torres can come back to haunt the Sounders. Torres was the type of big body that could muscle up with Adi one-on-one and allow the remaining defenders to focus on Nagbe, Valeri, and Lucas Melano without giving away too much position. With Torres out with an ACL tear, Chad Marshall will once again be matched up with Adi. The remaining Seattle defenders have been prone to lapses and missed communications, and an in-form Portland team would be ready to feast on any mistakes.
If Nagbe and Adi can keep up their recent run of play, there is not a team in the Western Conference that Portland cannot beat. A Western Conference title would be sweet music to the Timbers regardless of how it comes; but to go through Seattle would be a dream scenario. I think it happens, and the Timbers beat Seattle 4-3 to advance to MLS Cup final and a date with New York Red Bulls.
GoLocalPDX partner Oregon Sports News: Since 2011, Oregon Sports News has provided entertaining, hard-hitting local sports news & commentary every weekday. To read more from this author, check out Oregon Sports News by clicking here.
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