Sunday Political Brunch: Is President Trump Getting a Bounce?—September 24, 2017
Sunday, September 24, 2017
Mark Curtis, GoLocalPDX Contributor
“By the Numbers” – This week, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll had Mr. Trump’s approval rating at 43 percent, up from 40 percent in August. The Marist Poll gave him a rise from 35 to 39 percent during the same period. In the CNN poll, he ticked up to 40 percent in September, from 38 percent in August. So, yes, he’s getting a bounce, albeit a modest one.
“Bipartisan Vibe” – The President has sent a lot of mixed signals since January, at times standing with Republicans, warring against Democrats. And then, more recently, choosing sides with the Democrats on some key issues. Americans like it when Congress and the White House govern in a bipartisan fashion. For example, a CNN Poll in July showed that 77 percent of the public wanted Congress and the White House to find a bipartisan solution to the health care debate, instead of just gutting Obamacare.
“Move It on Over” – Well, bipartisanship hasn’t happened on health care; but on two other issues the President likely scored points that brought up his approval numbers. First, he sided with Democratic Congressional leaders on a plan to raise the debt ceiling and keep the government from shutting down. Then, he announced that he and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) were in general agreement on trying to pass a bill regarding DACA, the policy that would allow children who were brought to this country illegally to stay if certain conditions were met. While that policy has some ways to go before becoming law, it - at the very least - shows a willingness to compromise and cooperate on both sides.
“North, by North Korea” – Some of the polls this week surveyed people after President Trump spoke at the United Nations, but other polls were conducted before his speech. Still, his hardline stance against North Korea (and that from others in his administration, such as Defense Secretary James Mattis and U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley) have bolstered his no-nonsense approach. The President told the General Assembly, “If… forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. The United States is ready, willing, and able, but hopefully this will not be necessary… That’s what the United Nations is for. Let’s see how they do.” He not only called out Kim Jong Un; he called out U.N. leaders, too. My guess is that even a lot of Trump detractors liked his rhetoric after all the menacing and unprovoked North Korean threats and missile launches.
“Disaster Aid Equals Presidential Aid” – It’s one of the simplest rules in Presidential politics. When Americans are in crisis and need help, you show up in person to show you care. President Trump received high marks for the tone of his visits to damaged areas following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Certainly, you can sign all the disaster declaration letters, and put all the federal aid you can muster into motion from the White House or aboard Air Force One; but if you delay in showing up – as President George W. Bush did during Hurricane Katrina – you upset a lot of people. To be sure, a President’s physical presence on a disaster scene does nothing for the actual relief effort. But what it does show is caring, compassion, and concern – traits we like to see in our leaders. Yes, its symbolic leadership; but it’s something Americans have come to expect.
“How Long Will the Bounce Last?” – That’s an eternal question in politics, which is essentially a love-hate business. President Trump’s sudden, resurging threat to repeal and replace Obamacare could erode some of his newfound support, especially from the other side of the aisle. But if he’s victorious, it could help him among establishment Republicans who still keep him at arm’s length. Quite honestly, the President’s biggest vulnerability might be an ill-advised tweet that upsets a cross-section of the public. He’s had a penchant for doing that. As I always say about politicians, their worst wounds are often self-inflicted. Stay tuned.
“Why All of This Matters” -- Governing is a difficult dance. You can be wildly popular one day, but a total “goat” the next. Some of it is within your control; much of it is not. But successful governing takes public and political support. It takes loyalty to stick by your party; but sometimes bold courage to reach across the aisle. If it were easy, every President would be a success. I suspect President Trump – after a pretty rough first eight months – is experimenting, just as so many of his predecessors did. If your game plan is not working, maybe it’s time to try another strategy. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, an olive branch to the other party can earn you greater respect from a skeptical public – at least for trying to be bipartisan, even if that effort doesn’t succeed.
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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a nationally-known political reporter, analyst, and writer based in West Virginia, where he serves as Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving the Mountain State.